Dividend forecasts
Every future dividend for 50,000+ listings: the dates, the amount and the chance it is raised, held, cut or omitted.
A dividend is known for certain only once it is declared. Until then, the ORTEX forecast gives every expected payment for 50,751 listings in 92 countries: declaration, ex, record and pay dates with a confidence band, a low, central and high amount, and the probability of a raise, hold, cut, omission or special. It is refreshed every business day and kept point in time.
AUC-ROC for calling dividend cuts and omissions across 1.24 million forecasts from 2008 to 2026, with a calibration error under one percentage point for every outcome.
Walk-forward backtest: each year forecast using only data from earlier years.
See the data itself
Example stocks: AAPL dividend forecast · MSFT dividend forecast · KO dividend forecast · JNJ dividend forecast
Cut and omission probabilities as a signal, with point-in-time history.
Ex-dates and amounts weeks before they are declared.
Dividend points for four major indices by futures year.
Every dividend, before it is declared
Dates, amounts and outcome probabilities for every expected payment, not just the next one.
Declaration, ex, record and pay dates for every expected payment, each with a plus or minus business-day band and a confidence score.
A low, central and high amount (P10, P50, P90) in the payment currency, beside the last comparable payment and the change against it.
The chance of a raise, hold, cut, omission or special dividend on every event, and the most likely outcome.
Each day's full forecast is kept exactly as published, and every stock's forecast history is rebuilt point in time back to October 2024, so a backtest sees only what was knowable.
Eurozone Top 50, US 500, UK Top 100 and Japan 225 by futures year: points paid, declared and still forecast, with a P10 to P90 range and the implied dividend yield.
Company declarations are matched to the forecast as they are announced, and each event shows whether the declared amount came in at, above or below it.
One forecast for every dividend-paying listing, with a calibrated probability on every outcome, published every day and never rewritten.
Measured out of sample
Walk-forward backtest, 2008 to 2026: 1.24 million forecasts, each made using only data from earlier years.
AUC-ROC 0.84 across all markets and 0.89 in North America for telling a coming cut or omission from a payment that holds or rises.
Calibration error is under one percentage point for every outcome, so a 30% cut chance means about three in ten. Skill against historical base rates: 31%, North America 39%.
AUC-ROC 0.87 for flagging a special dividend before it is declared.
30 days before the expected declaration: Japan 81% exact and 99% within three business days, Korea 85% and 95%, Canada 66% and 89%, the US 61% and 84%.
Within 10% of the declared amount 30 days ahead: US 88% against 65% for the consensus-implied amount, Canada 90% against 60%, Japan 58% against 49%.
As of 1 July, full-year points for the four indices were missed by 5.5% on average against 11.8% for assuming last year repeats, closer in 25 of 28 index-years from 2019 to 2025.
Sample forecasts
The next undeclared dividend for seven large payers, from the ORTEX forecast of 27 October 2026.
- Forecast
- 27 October 2026 run
- Also on every row
- Declaration, record and pay dates, date confidence, forward yield, expected ex-date price drop and the main drivers of the call
- Once declared
- Declared amount, time, and at, above or below the forecast
Every outcome gets a probability, not just a single number: GSK's next dividend has a 26% chance of a cut or omission, Tesco's a 95% chance of a raise.
| Stock | Event | Ex-date | Last | P10 | P50 | P90 | Raise | Hold | Cut or omit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple (Nasdaq) | Q4 2026 | 9 Nov 2026 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.28 | 5% | 95% | 0% |
| Microsoft (Nasdaq) | Q1 2027 | 18 Feb 2027 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 1.05 | 5% | 95% | 0% |
| National Grid (LSE) | H2 2026 | 19 Nov 2026 ±5 | 16.35 | 16.35 | 16.80 | 19.26 | 82% | 13% | 5% |
| GSK (LSE) | Q4 2026 | 12 Nov 2026 | 17.00 | 17.00 | 17.00 | 25.50 | 37% | 37% | 26% |
| Tesco (LSE) | H1 2027 | 20 May 2027 ±5 | 9.70 | 9.80 | 10.21 | 13.27 | 95% | 1% | 4% |
| Siemens (Xetra) | FY 2027 | 12 Feb 2027 | 5.35 | 4.46 | 5.35 | 7.64 | 69% | 17% | 14% |
| Toyota (Tokyo) | H2 2027 | 29 Sep 2027 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 69.44 | 54% | 37% | 9% |
Amounts per share in the payment currency: US dollars, pence, euros and yen. The ex-date band is in business days. Chances are raise, hold, and cut or omission against the last comparable payment.
License dividend forecasts for your desk.
Trial access, pricing and licensing from the data sales team. Delivered over the enterprise API (the forecast per stock and its history, the whole market by region, daily point-in-time vintages, declarations and index dividend points), as JSON or CSV, or on the ORTEX platform.
Pre-earnings briefs two to three days ahead, surprises and past reactions.
Dividends, splits, M&A, spin-offs and lock-ups on one timeline per stock.
570,000 company events a year and a global macro calendar with surprises.
Daily add and delete forecasts for 131 indices in 22 markets, MSCI included, scored after every review.
Coverage, history and figures are as at October 2026. Accuracy figures are from a walk-forward backtest of the ORTEX forecast over 2008 to 2026, not a record of live results. Forecasts are estimates and dividends are set by each company. Provided for information purposes only; not investment advice. Past performance is not a guide to future results. See the full data catalog.