85% of calls right the day before the announcement.1
10,302 of 12,133 add and delete calls, every scheduled review since 2018 across 46 indices, rebuilt point in time and scored against the changes the providers published. Three weeks before the announcement, 82% were already right. Plus 72 MSCI indexes, scored separately below.
- of calls right the day before
- 85%
- of calls right the day before
- of the providers' changes on our list the day before
- 80%
- of the providers' changes on our list the day before
- of calls already right three weeks out
- 82%
- of calls already right three weeks out
- indices scored, 72 of them MSCI
- 118
- indices scored, 72 of them MSCI
UK and Europe
Every scheduled review, scored against the official changes. Caught: of the changes the provider made, the share we had called. Right: of the names we called, the share that happened.
| Index | Since | Changes | Additions caught | Addition calls right | Deletions caught | Deletion calls right | 3 weeks out: caught | 3 weeks out: right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 2018 | 131 | 85% | 86% | 86% | 85% | 61% | 67% |
| FTSE 250 | 2018 | 458 | 77% | 81% | 84% | 88% | 50% | 72% |
| FTSE All-Share | 2018 | 262 | 60% | 72% | 56% | 88% | 48% | 71% |
| STOXX Europe 600 | 2018 | 674 | 81% | 84% | 78% | 86% | 59% | 73% |
| EURO STOXX | 2018 | 276 | 84% | 79% | 74% | 88% | 53% | 74% |
| STOXX Europe 50 | 2018 | 32 | 100% | 94% | 88% | 82% | 75% | 75% |
| EURO STOXX 50 | 2018 | 40 | 90% | 86% | 95% | 90% | 88% | 80% |
| DAX | March 2024 | 8 | 50% | 50% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 60% |
| MDAX | March 2024 | 56 | 64% | 78% | 54% | 71% | 57% | 59% |
| SDAX | March 2024 | 88 | 48% | 78% | 52% | 85% | 47% | 61% |
| TecDAX | March 2024 | 22 | 55% | 100% | 55% | 100% | 55% | 63% |
Nordics and South Africa
Every scheduled review, scored against the official changes. Caught: of the changes the provider made, the share we had called. Right: of the names we called, the share that happened.
| Index | Since | Changes | Additions caught | Addition calls right | Deletions caught | Deletion calls right | 3 weeks out: caught | 3 weeks out: right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OMX Stockholm Benchmark | 2018 | 294 | 62% | 63% | 73% | 72% | 65% | 67% |
| OMX Stockholm 30 | 2018 | 23 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| OMX Copenhagen 25 | 2018 | 31 | 94% | 84% | 100% | 88% | 94% | 81% |
| OMX Helsinki 25 | 2018 | 26 | 79% | 85% | 100% | 92% | 88% | 88% |
| OMX Iceland 10 | 2018 | 59 | 62% | 54% | 81% | 63% | 71% | 58% |
| OBX | 2018 | 84 | 76% | 74% | 88% | 86% | 86% | 78% |
| FTSE/JSE Top 40 | 2025 | 10 | 80% | 100% | 80% | 80% | 20% | 50% |
| FTSE/JSE Large Cap | 2025 | 7 | 100% | 80% | 100% | 100% | 86% | 86% |
| FTSE/JSE Mid Cap | 2025 | 21 | 100% | 91% | 91% | 77% | 86% | 90% |
| FTSE/JSE Small Cap | 2025 | 21 | 83% | 71% | 89% | 89% | 67% | 78% |
| FTSE/JSE All Share | 2025 | 15 | 78% | 78% | 67% | 80% | 53% | 67% |
The Americas
Every scheduled review, scored against the official changes. Caught: of the changes the provider made, the share we had called. Right: of the names we called, the share that happened.
| Index | Since | Changes | Additions caught | Addition calls right | Deletions caught | Deletion calls right | 3 weeks out: caught | 3 weeks out: right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Tech 100 | 2018 | 91 | 98% | 98% | 93% | 93% | 93% | 96% |
| S&P 500 | 2023 | 72 | 50% | 64% | 81% | 81% | 44% | 64% |
| S&P MidCap 400 | 2023 | 178 | 17% | 68% | 54% | 80% | 34% | 67% |
| S&P SmallCap 600 | 2023 | 361 | 35% | 79% | 79% | 80% | 50% | 69% |
| Russell 1000 | 2018 | 797 | 80% | 88% | 88% | 87% | 83% | 87% |
| Russell 2000 | 2018 | 4,362 | 85% | 88% | 92% | 95% | 88% | 91% |
| S&P/TSX Composite | 2018 | 243 | 74% | 91% | 87% | 90% | 71% | 87% |
North Asia
Every scheduled review, scored against the official changes. Caught: of the changes the provider made, the share we had called. Right: of the names we called, the share that happened.
| Index | Since | Changes | Additions caught | Addition calls right | Deletions caught | Deletion calls right | 3 weeks out: caught | 3 weeks out: right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng China Enterprises | 2018 | 133 | 69% | 73% | 83% | 81% | 73% | 76% |
| Hang Seng TECH | 2018 | 43 | 40% | 100% | 91% | 81% | 67% | 85% |
| Nikkei 225 | 2018 | 57 | 82% | 96% | 66% | 86% | 72% | 91% |
| KOSPI 200 | 2018 | 174 | 80% | 74% | 77% | 75% | 78% | 74% |
| KOSDAQ 150 | 2018 | 454 | 77% | 77% | 71% | 69% | 74% | 72% |
| FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 | 2018 | 100 | 94% | 94% | 94% | 94% | 72% | 82% |
| FTSE TWSE Taiwan Mid-Cap 100 | 2018 | 342 | 88% | 87% | 83% | 92% | 70% | 82% |
India and Australia
Every scheduled review, scored against the official changes. Caught: of the changes the provider made, the share we had called. Right: of the names we called, the share that happened.
| Index | Since | Changes | Additions caught | Addition calls right | Deletions caught | Deletion calls right | 3 weeks out: caught | 3 weeks out: right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 2018 | 40 | 75% | 71% | 85% | 81% | 80% | 80% |
| Nifty Next 50 | 2018 | 194 | 79% | 78% | 90% | 89% | 85% | 84% |
| Nifty 100 | 2018 | 173 | 78% | 78% | 93% | 91% | 86% | 85% |
| Nifty 200 | 2018 | 315 | 72% | 78% | 79% | 77% | 74% | 77% |
| Nifty 500 | 2018 | 832 | 81% | 76% | 80% | 78% | 81% | 77% |
| Nifty Midcap 150 | 2018 | 498 | 68% | 89% | 78% | 89% | 73% | 89% |
| S&P/ASX 20 | 2018 | 31 | 87% | 72% | 75% | 80% | 84% | 87% |
| S&P/ASX 50 | 2018 | 48 | 78% | 75% | 84% | 100% | 81% | 72% |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 2018 | 250 | 81% | 67% | 76% | 84% | 77% | 74% |
| S&P/ASX 300 | 2018 | 382 | 76% | 81% | 86% | 88% | 75% | 81% |
MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes
Quarterly reviews, February 2024 to August 2026, each forecast point in time using only information public before it, scored the day before the announcement. The PDF carries the 68 country and regional indexes as well.
| Index | Additions | Caught | Calls right | Deletions | Caught | Calls right |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSCI World | 126 | 69% | 70% | 334 | 57% | 86% |
| MSCI World Small Cap | 1,078 | 63% | 75% | 980 | 69% | 79% |
| MSCI Emerging Markets | 274 | 48% | 65% | 523 | 32% | 84% |
| MSCI EM Small Cap | 841 | 46% | 57% | 1,038 | 50% | 76% |
| All four | 2,319 | 55% | 67% | 2,875 | 54% | 79% |
How a call is scored
- 1Rebuilt point in time
Every forecast is rebuilt for each past date using only the data, rules and announcements public on that date. Membership, prices, share counts and methodology are taken as of the date.
- 2Scored against the provider
Every forecast is compared with the changes the index provider published for that review, the day before the announcement and twenty calendar days before it.
- 3A call means 50% or more
A name counts as called when we priced it at 50% or higher. Names below 50% are published too, at their odds.
Right and caught, plainly
- Right: when we call it, how often does it happen?
- Of the names we called, the share the provider actually added or deleted. Additions 83%, deletions 87%, the day before.
- Caught: of what happened, how much did we see?
- Of the changes the provider made, the share we had called: 80% the day before.
Do our odds hold up? When we say 30%, it means 30%.2
A probability is only useful if it means what it says. We group every prediction by the probability we gave it and count how often it came true. On FTSE/JSE, calls priced 0.90 to 1.00 came true 95% of the time, across 663 predictions.
The 0.25 to 0.50 band came true 43% of the time: the odds run cautious near the line and hold up in the tails.
- 0 to 0.107% of 3,652
- 0.10 to 0.2512% of 1,854
- 0.25 to 0.5043% of 1,257
- 0.50 to 0.7558% of 832
- 0.75 to 0.9077% of 450
- 0.90 to 1.0095% of 663
The weak cells are shown on purpose.
Where a committee picks the names rather than a published rule, the forecast is harder. The weakest cell in these tables is S&P MidCap 400 additions, 17% caught, and it stays in. A report card goes out after every review, misses and their reasons included, because a track record that hides its misses is not a track record.
Every call, every morning, with its probability.
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